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Sunday morning joy on the golf, and pants nearly on head!

For the first time this year, a strong week’s betting has been immediately followed by another, and it was almost entirely down to a nice winner on the golf in 50/1 shot Jesper Svensson for Weekly Golf Value.  That really though, is only half the story.

I woke, as usual, at around 7.00 on Sunday morning (why is it the older I get the harder I find it to enjoy a lie in?).  made some coffee (why is it that as I get older, although I can’t enjoy a lie in I do need a strong dose of caffeine before feeling moderately human?) and switched on the telly to see what my golfers were doing in the latter stages of the tournament in Singapore.  And there was Svensson at the top by two shots, with Golf Betting Club’s wonderfully-named Kiradech Aphibarnrat (80/1) behind in second.  The first shot I saw was the latter eagling the 18th to force a play-off!

It’s a nice position to be in as a bettor.  A two-horse race when you’re on each at 50/1 and 80/1.  Although my selfish slight preference was for Jenssen, bearing in mind I had twice as big a stake on him, albeit at the shorter odds, it was lovely to just be able to enjoy my coffee and see what panned out.  What did pan out was an incredibly tense play-off and have to admit, I think I’d have had to have turned it off if I was only on one of them!

So, as it worked out, with the win and another three placers in the US event that Sunday evening, it was an excellent all round week for Weekly Golf Value, and despite the disappointment of Aphibarnrat’s ultimate defeat, Golf Betting Club were able to enjoy another profitable few days.

Away from the gold and it was, as had been noted in my previous Bet Diary post, a very quiet week.  The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker usually generates most turnover, but due to the lack of domestic football as a consequence of the infernal and completely superfluous international break, only  managed to get five Lucky 15s down all week.  Only three Value Bets from the same outfit’s Bet Tracker too, no DD/HH strategy bet….you can see the impact.

Sys Analyst was able to carry on as normal of course, and generated a bit more profit to keep pushing forward, but sadly the horses was the main drain on resources last week with the Lucky 15s from Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker enduring a horrible few days.  I thought we were about to get a major boost from these just yesterday when the first horse in a Lucky 15 came in at 20/1, as did the second at 9/2.  Here we go!  Pants were being removed (Josh!) and about to be placed on head, but that would have proved to be premature with how the two remaining horses ran.  Oh well, that big win will arrive some day.

Before it does, here are the figures…

Betting 2024

Account Angel: Staked 1,370pts, -34.22pts. ROI -2.49%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 4,245pts, +628.98pts, ROI 14.81%, ROC 41.93%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 2,047.5pts, +167.51pts, ROI: 8.18%, ROC: 11.16%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 3,375pts, -312.06pts, ROI: -9.24%, ROC: -20.8%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,094pts, +450.23pts, ROI: 21.5%, ROC: 45.02%

DD/HH: Staked 474.5pts, -103.5pts, ROI: -21.81%, ROC: -10.35%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 805pts, +239.12pts, ROI 29.7%, ROC 17.08%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,266.05pts, +461.81pts, ROI: 36.47%, ROC: 46.1%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 9.46%

Horrible Interlulls, nothing to bet on, and the Flat is upon us!

What sort of percentage of those who take an interest in top level football do you think, believe this latest break for international friendlies to be a good idea?  I’m aware some countries are playing qualifiers, but which muppets are responsible for this current schedule?

We’re in the midst of what is the most exciting Title race for years, Manchester City are due to play Real Madrid and Arsenal Bayern Munich in the Champions’ League quarter finals – two hugely glamorous and exciting matches – and yet we have to stop so Gareth Southgate can take a look at how Jordan Henderson might fit into his midfield and Harry Maguire the defence.  Perleeeease!

Another impact that this international break is having is on my betting output.  I’ve barely struck a bet this week.  We have the golf, but other than that there’s been one (unusual) Monday tip from Sys Analyst and today, Thursday, I’ve placed my first Lucky 15 of the week.  The Bookiebashing Early Pay Out Tracker has been rendered almost redundant by the lack of football, and there have been no Bet Tracker Value Bets to speak of.  Seriously, this betting week has been a wash out.

Fingers crossed things will pick up a bit over the weekend.

Talking of things being quiet, and I promise this will be my last word on this year’s Cheltenham Festival, but I was a little surprised by how quiet the bookies was when I went in last week.  I tend to get to the local shop between 12.30 and 1.00 most days, so about half an hour or so before the first race each day at Cheltenham.  There were a couple of the old regulars in, but no-one else really.  I remember when shops were heaving during Cheltenham week.

Talking to the chap behind the counter though, and he was saying that early mornings had been busy with some sizeable bets being taken.  When I asked what sizeable meant, he said £500 or £600 quid.  Got to be honest, I’ve not seen anyone in the shops I go to putting down that kind of stake on anything.  Just goes to show that people are still invested in racing and Cheltenham, despite what the doomsayers (including me) say.

Flat season starts this weekend.  A sure sign of spring, although I wish the weather would recognise it’s nearly here!  I bet Wayne at Northern Monkey is gearing up for it, and I wish him all the best for this season’s Flat Turf wars against the bookmakers.  Before we know it, it will be Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.  Think it will have warmed up by then!?!

Cheltenham profit, Sys Analyst and Lucky 15s deliver the goods.

‘The vibe coming into the meeting was as muted as I can recall and I’ve never experienced a flatter two days at the meeting than the first two days of it this year.”

This was a tweet from Declan Meagher, the extraordinary tipster behind the Learn Bet Win service.  I hadn’t thought I’d misread the room in last week’s post, but it was good to see someone as esteemed as Declan back up my thoughts on the feeling going into Cheltenham.  To be honest, I saw the pundits on ITV Racing debating the issue of Cheltenham losing its bling/charm (delete as you feel appropriate) so at least there is some recognition that there is at least, an issue.

From a personal point of view it felt at least, that things were more like you would expect the Festival to be, on the Thursday and Friday when more competitive racing kicked in.   From a punting point of view, the meeting was a fairly successful one.

The Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker had been seriously underwhelming, but a couple of decent winning tickets took a good chunk out of the year to date losses, and ensured the week in isolation was a good one.  No spectacular winning bet, but a couple with two winners and another with a win and three placed netted circa 10 points profit on each, and that soon adds up.  The Lucky 15s are still in the red for 2024, but a good step has been taken towards the promised land of profit.

Sys Analyst ran a free trial over Cheltenham and those dabbling weren’t let down.  There were some good winners and overall a decent profit made.  I think I said this last week, but if you get the opportunity to join this long term winning service, I would recommend you do so.  If you look at my figures for 2024, I’m currently running at 35% ROI and have achieved 40% bank growth, which is obviously excellent.  The main thing here though, is that 90% of the bets I place for Sys Analyst I do so on the Exchanges.  Because of Allan’s desire for everyone to be able to get on, I’m betting into liquid markets and getting the prices I need.

It was also a week when after a couple of “sideways” weeks, the Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker took another step forward.  This is now running at a 15% ROI and a wee bit under 40% bank growth since the turn of the year, so another going along swimmingly.  Managed to get all four up in one bet, although the prices on three of the teams were relatively short, but a couple of L15s that carried three winners at odds between 2.0 and 4.0 meant returns from those tickets were solid.  Just a case of plugging away with these.

The only thing to suffer a poor week was the Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven strategy with more bets to place than has been the recent norm, but none of the beggars winning.  It will change.

Figures for 2024:

Account Angel: Staked 1,370pts, -34.22pts. ROI -2.49%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 4,170pts, +562.98pts, ROI 13.5%, ROC 37.53%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 1,843.5pts, -318.49pts, ROI: -17.27%, ROC: -21.23%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 3,015pts, -151.93pts, ROI: -5.13%, ROC: -10.12%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 2,044pts, +455.23pts, ROI: 22.27%, ROC: 45.52%

DD/HH: Staked 474.5pts, -103.5pts, ROI: -21.81%, ROC: -10.35%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 723pts, 218.12pts, ROI 30.16%, ROC 15.58%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 1,141.05pts, +407.04pts, ROI: 35.67%, ROC: 40.7%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 3.19%

Golf Betting Club from Golf Betting Club – 175/1!!!

There’s only one place to start with this week’s round up, and that’s with Matteo Manassero’s wonderful win at 175/1 in the DP World Tour event in South Africa at the weekend.  Tipped up pre-tournament by Golf Betting Club, this was the first big win since I added the Campbell brother’s service to the portfolio.  The Italian managed to hold on despite a wee wobble in the final round, but with this and a couple of placed finishes across the golfing board (there were four tournaments last week), it was a great week for GBC.  More please!

Elsewhere and it’s all been a bit uninspiring.  My Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker continue to struggle, and Weekly Golf Value couldn’t avoid a loss this week.  Sys Analyst had a bit of an underwhelming pre-Cheltenham week, and a tiny profit from the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker which counterbalanced the previous week’s tiny loss.

There was a winner for the Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven strategy, but not a huge profit once a couple of losers too.

So away from the fun and games in South Africa, it’s all been a bit mundane.  The first two days of Cheltenham haven’t changed that either, but more on that in the next post, when I’ll stick up all the figures.  Just need to get down to a couple of the bookies to pick up some returns, and I’ll be able to reckon up.

Cheltenham!

I’ve seen a lot on social media recently, about how the 2024 version of the Cheltenham Festival, which takes place next week, represents a “tipping point”.  From what I can gather, what seems like interminable dithering from a number of high profile trainers about the races their high profile horses will contest is one big reason, as punters are left in the dark.  Exacerbating this problem is the fact that with the addition of a number of races over recent year, horses those invested in horse racing as a sport and as a betting medium would love to see take each other on, don’t.  Which of course dilutes the excitement, reduces the competitiveness of a number of the races, and makes those races of less interest from a betting perspective.

Certainly in terms of what I see are the prices for entry and food and drink, I can understand why a tipping point may easily have been reached for many who simply can’t afford the exorbitant prices of tickets, food and drink.  I can imagine that a lot of families who might once have gone, wouldn’t now.  You’d have to take out a second mortgage to take a family of four it seems, and all whilst still in the midst of a cost of living crisis.  It’s fine for ex-footballers who are now retired but were able to cash in on Premier League riches in terms of wages to advertise the fact they’re going.  Coming from a sport once maligned as pandering to the “prawn sandwich brigade”, it appears that to be able to afford a prawn sandwich at Cheltenham you’d need to be on and enjoying the level of salary these ex-footballers were once on!

From a personal point of view, I have to admit that Cheltenham isn’t to me what it once was, but I think that is more down to personal circumstance than anything.  Most of my fondest betting memories have Cheltenham at their core.

I remember being on a train to the Festival back in 1996 with my best friend and his Dad, convincing anyone that would listen (that wasn’t many) that hot thing One Man couldn’t perform to his best on an undulating track and that Imperial Call would win the Gold Cup that afternoon.  Having just read Nick  Mordin’s book, I had spent hours scouring the form book and had formulated  this theory.  Still don’t know if I was right or wrong, but when Imperial Call stormed up the hill with One Man trailing in way back, I can think I was pretty unbearable company.

The Kauto Star/Denman rivalry feel like halcyon days now, but were so absorbing at the time.  I remember a 50/1 winner (can’t remember the name of the horse) tipped up by a service called On The Nose that went off in front in its race, and simply stayed there all the way around Prestbury Park.

Another year (2011?), I was taking a bit of a hammering, but on Gold Cup day the PCB service based around the Racing Post and Pricewise tips (which is still going strong) had Zarkander in the opening Triumph Hurdle win thrillingly, and then Long Run for the Gold Cup.  The latter beat both Kauto Star and Denman in what to me, has been the most singularly thrilling horse race I’ve ever seen.  Come the end of the day, I was up on a high, emotionally  and financially.

Happy days.

However, as my own betting has been forced largely away from online betting and following the tipsters that made Cheltenham so easy to invest in as a spectacle in itself – the likes of The Value Bettor, Northern Monkey, On The Nose and others – my interest has dwindled a little.  I’ll still keep an eye on things, but more from afar, and not the total immersion I used to relish.  No doubt I’ll have a few Lucky 15s involving Cheltenham runners gleaned from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, and Allan from Sys Analyst enjoys a fine record at Cheltenham and I’ll be backing his bets on the exchanges, so it’s not as if it will pass me by completely.  But Cheltenham isn’t what it once was for me, and I feel a bit sad about that.  Or maybe nostalgic, is a better way to frame it.

Those of you who do still follow the best tipsters out there and who can take advantage of their acumen and insight at the Festival…embrace it and enjoy it!  I envy you.

A load of old tosh!

NOT…a good week.  One of those that feels like everything you bet on, loses.  Having started to creep up and more or less hit my profit target for the year to date after the completion of two months, a lot of that good work was undone and although still in the black, the ROI has dropped right back again.  Frustrating.

No service covered itself in glory with no big profit contribution from any.  A few had a bit of a shocker though.

Worst culprit was the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker Lucky 15s, especially on Sunday.  I drove around a few bookies and got a fair few Lucky 15s down, and I really wish I hadn’t bothered.  I got a fraction back from a fair amount put down, and the odd horse placing had their returns decimated by the impact of Rule 4s.  What a load of old tosh!

The golf was a big disappointment too, after having a winner the week before.  Three tournaments and only two golfers placing for the Weekly Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value.  Golf Betting Club got a couple of returns but not enough to avoid a loss overall, although not to the same extent as the bets from the Tracker.

Even the stars of 2024 so far, the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker Value Bets couldn’t bale me out.  Only four bets struck, but all of them unsuccessful.  Just one  of those weeks, I guess.

A quick note that I’ve started betting the Sys Analyst Exchange Bets (as distinct from the “main” bets I’ve been reporting on thus far).  Allan has been sending these out to subscribers on what has been a bit of a trial basis, but I believe is now going to start charging for them.  Profitability has been good through the trial, and if anyone gets the chance to jump on board, I couldn’t recommend Allan’s offerings more strongly.  A proper pro’.

Account Angel: Staked 1,235pts, -17.42pts. ROI -1.41%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 3,210pts, +443.1pts, ROI 13.8%, ROC 29.54%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 1,432.5pts, -263.37pts, ROI: -18.38%, ROC: -17.55%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 2,400pts, -304.43pts, ROI: -12.68%, ROC: -20.29%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 1,779pts, +439.9pts, ROI: 24.72%, ROC: 29.32%

DD/HH: Staked 271.5pts, -25.5pts, ROI: -9.39%, ROC: -2.55%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 467pts, -137.88pts, ROI -29.52%, ROC -9.19%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 816.15pts, +348.21pts, ROI: 42.66%, ROC: 23.21%

Sys Analyst (Exchange): Staked 158.72pts, -45.8pts, ROI -28.85%, ROC 3.05%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 3.77%

February Review: Pushing up the profit…

So it’s the end of Month 2 of 2024, and where are we standing?

Well, it could be a lot, lot worse, but the ROI remains a little under the long term 10% target, although a strong second half to February has brought it up considerably.  The figures aren’t quite completely up to date as I’ve a couple of slips to take to the shops to pick up the returns, but they’re as near as dammit.  We’re likely talking a 0.1% difference in overall ROI, either for the good or bad.

I’ve been using the freebie SBC Account Angel service for a few weeks now and have racked up a fair few bets.  I don’t expect to make any money with this service over the long term.  It’s not geared towards being a tipster service, but more a method to utilize in the endless quest to maximize the lifespan of our online bookmaker accounts, so I see the 3.87% ROI I’m currently sitting on as something of a bonus.  I’ll give some more thoughts on the experience of following in a post soon.

The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker and the Lucky 15 football bets derived from it have hit another profit high, and (clearly) it’s all going swimmingly at the moment.  Like the previous week, there hasn’t been one outstanding, big win, which I’m hopeful will happen sooner or later.  Rather a nice nine point return on one Lucky 15 and a series of smaller wins that all mounted up.  Obviously a fair number of losing Lucky 15s too, but right now this is proving to be something of a gold mine.  I think there’s something in the offing in the not too distant future from the SBC, delving deeper into this strategy.

By contrast, the horse racing Lucky 15s from the BB Racing Tracker remain in deficit, but encouragingly over 60% of the losses incurred on the way to hitting a drawdown lowpoint, have now been clawed back.  Of course it could dip again, but equally we might hit that big winning ticket that nets 50-100 points in one fell swoop and suddenly we’re admiring a really high ROI.  That will happen, it’s just a matter of when.  This is probably the longest period of drawdown I’ve experienced with these since starting to place the Lucky 15s two years ago.  My faith in them has not been eroded one tiny bit.

The bets taken from the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker/Combo Tracker and those I find myself (mainly Any Time Goalscorer bets) continue to confound, and in a very good way!  So far through 2024 these have just shaded the Early Pay Out Tracker bets, and in fact this strategy is the most prolific so far in 2024, based on ROI and bank growth.  I keep telling myself they can’t continue in this vein and I’m living in a metaphorical brace position mentality, waiting for the “correction”.  Perhaps I should stop worrying.  But whatever way I look at it, a 30%+ ROI just cannot be sustainable, can it.  I mean…Can it?!?

A small, but steady profit again this weekend from Sys Analyst keeps things ticking over and pushed the profit to a new ytd high again.  Bring on Cheltenham!

And final comment reserved for Golf Betting Club.  No profit as yet, and last week was a fairly poor one by their own admission.  But I really am liking what I’m seeing here, especially the in-form angle that has brought something new to the party.  Needs time, as do all golf tipsters.  This one feels like it will reward patience.

Account Angel: Staked 1,025pts, +39.73pts. ROI 3.87%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 2,655pts, +471.39pts, ROI 17.75%, ROC 31.42%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 1,142.5pts, -118.37pts, ROI: -12.2%, ROC: -7.89%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 2,100pts, -152pts, ROI: -7.23%, ROC: -10.13%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 1,709pts, +509.9pts, ROI: 29.83%, ROC: 33.99%

DD/HH: Staked 226.5pts, +19.5pts, ROI: 8.6%, ROC: 1.95%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 440.5pts, -127.38pts, ROI -28.91%, ROC -8.49%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 598.4pts, +276.81pts, ROI: 46.25%, ROC: 18.45%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 8.27%

 

 

 

So close to a BIG Weekly Golf Value return!

I know, I know.  Just the one Bet Diary post last week, but will be back to normal posting this week.  To be honest, after everything that had happened the previous week, and with my wife on half term (I should add she’s a teacher, not in 6th Form or anything!), we decided to take a couple of days off and go and chill out a bit.  A couple of lunches out, and cold walks home due to having had too much to drink to be able to drive, it was just what the doctor ordered.  But it did mean there was just the one BD post.  Back properly in the saddle this week, and the next post will be on Wednesday with a full results update.

The weekend just gone produced another healthy enough profit.  The second weekend is succession, and the first time this year so far that has been the case.  The ROI is creeping up to the long term 10% target, and the bottom line cash made figure is actually ahead of schedule.

Contributing to the coffers this weekend was Weekly Golf Value, which coughed up one winner at 55/1 (Darius van Driel) and almost a second 100/1 winner.  The nicely staked Big Finn Sami Valimaki though, after going odds on to win the Mexico Open part way through the final round, finished up in second place.  That I think, is the 372nd second place we’ve had this year so far!  Seriously, I’ve never known anything like it.  With the winner on the DPWT event, a double up would of course, have been sweet, but it was not to be.

The profit from van Driel wasn’t perhaps what you might expect with the stake the bet was carrying on the lower-than-normal size.  In their email to members today, WGV stated this was down to the fact that liquidity for the event, which wasn’t exactly one of the big tournies on the Tour, was light.  I get why they did it, but it’s a bit of a shame nonetheless.  Still, I’m not complaining.  A profit is a profit and the winner of a golf tournament is never to be sniffed at or taken for granted.  Who knows how long it will be until the next one?

A good chunk of profit again from the Early Pay Out Tracker, with one Lucky 15 netting a nine point profit.  Not massive, but all I’m seeing from this method is consistent profit growth.

So a week that provided nothing spectacular, but a good, solid performance that keeps the upward curve in the profit and loss line.

More details on Wednesday.

The Three Top Performers of 2024 so far, and tipsters changing with the times.

I’m very aware that a number of readers have been good enough to email me over the last week/ten days or so with questions and comments.  I will be getting back to each email and address questions within these posts, so please bear with me if you are one of those that have.  There was no Bet Diary post last week, as I was given the starkest of lessons in just how much we take for granted good health, how precious life is, and how short it can be.

All of which meant that the day-to-day betting went out of the window for a few days.  The weekend just gone was back to normal, and it proved to be the most profitable of 2024 so far, dragging the overall ROI up to a level of respectability, if still lagging a bit behind where I would want and expect it to be long-term.  This despite the only bets that were placed during the week – on golf – proving to be fruitless.

2024 Betting: Total ROI 6.8%

 

Still rattling along in the lead of my 2024 tipster and strategy league table are the Value Bets taken from the Bookie Bashing Bet/Combo Bets Tracker.  Occasionally you see bets that carry BIG value, and not always those gained by Odds Boosts or the like.  Take this Sunday when a bet on the corners market offered on a Spanish Liga 1 match was landed, sourced from the William Hill #YourOdds offers.  Not only are these the sort of bets that online books like to see you take, but when the perceived value is at 115%+ and the price at 2/1, it means a sizable stake.  They don’t all win of course, but over time I’m more than confident these will make a decent profit, and so it is proving this year so far.  I’ve taken 81 bets since January 1st, many using cash at  the shops, and others online as described above.  My only filter is that I need to see a minimum perceived value of 105%.  32 winning bets later, and the ROI is at a ridiculous 34% and bank growth of 33%.  I appreciate the sample is very small.  I appreciate that level of ROI is clearly unsustainable (I’m hoping for 5-6% long term).  But just now, I’m enjoying the ride.

Bookie Bashing Value/Combo Bets Tracker: Staked 1,449pts, +494.43pts, ROI: 34.12%, ROC: 32.96%

 

In second place is the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, and the strategy of putting four teams in Lucky 15s, and placing 5 Lucky 15s down per day.  This clearly provides high turnover, with the aim of reducing variance.  So far the tactic has worked extremely well, and Saturday saw four teams come in, including one at a price of 15/2.  My natural caution means that my approach is to look to have one team at odds of 3/1 or higher in each set of four, and three at any price up to 3/1; very similar to the way I look to structure the Lucky 15s I stick down on the horses (albeit at different odds bands).  The full house on Saturday landed just over 22 points profit, with all the other Lucky 15s generating a very small loss between them.  This very neatly illustrates the strategy – look to tick over, making a little, losing a little, waiting for the big win which will inevitably come if you give it long enough.

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 2,265pts, +413pts, ROI 18.23%, ROC 27.53%

 

The last few months have been a testing period for Sys Analyst and I’m still a fair way from my last previous high which was back in the autumn.  But, to say there are signs of a recovery is something of an understatement as a consistent supply of winners in 2024 sees me rattling along at an ROI for the year of 50%!  In an email to members this week, Allan pointed to an above average numbers of near misses that has badly affected returns, whilst acknowledging that this is all part of the game and at other times the breaks go for you and not against you.  This is where experience in any tipster you follow can be invaluable.  An ability to adapt, to continue to trust in the methodology, to not panic and remain calm is paramount.

Allan lowers his stakes a little whenever a particularly bad run hits, but from this week he is raising them back up to the “normal” level.  Reading his email made me think of old favourite The Value Bettor, and how focus on tipping realistically achievable prices in markets holding sufficient liquidity is necessary as the bookmaking environment we’re operating in is so poor.  This one factor is shaping how honest tipsters work.  Those that are happy to simply quote headline prices which no-one is going to be able to either get consistently or if they somehow manage to, keep their accounts open for any length of time, can get in the bin.  Those like Allan, and many others monitored by the SBC and who find themselves in the Hall of Fame, are to be cherished.  This quote from Allan’s  email sums it all up: “I have evolved the service continually to change with the times, and these days, it’s OK to bet on the big races early, but the low class, low hanging fruit type races may be easy to make a big profit on, but no good for winners as they are account closers.”

Sys Analyst: Staked 504.9pts, +254.04pts, ROI: 50.31%, ROC: 16.93%

 

That’s all for now.  Next post will see more results and a question answered on dealing with a busted bankroll.

Until then…

Head just above the water, a nice Lucky 15, a winner for GBC and Sys Analyst excels!

After a reasonably profitable week – nothing spectacular mind – I’ve managed to haul myself back above the break even line for 2024.  Just.  An ROI of 0.5% seems like not much return for a lot of running around.  In reality of course, five weeks of betting is nothing in the wider context of things.

Most of the profit came from one Lucky 15 bet from the Bookie Bashing Early Payout Tracker which returned 16 points.  It was one of many such Lucky 15s struck last week, with the vast majority of them producing a deficit, but much like the horse racing Lucky 15s it’s about waiting for the good one to hit home, and one was enough to see us nicely into the black.

Golf Betting Club found 14/1 winning favourite Joaquin Niemann in the LIV Golf event.  I’m not too sure what happened there, but Niemann went off like the clappers but did something to merit being punished with a two shot penalty.  Fending off Sergio Garcia in a play off the odds were landed, and further profit was made by 100/1 in play bet Ockie Strydom who landed the place spoils by finishing in a tie for 4th.  Got to admit, halfway through the final round on Sunday the South African was tying for the lead and just one or two hopes were allowed to creep in.  Alas, not to be, but a solid all round week for GBC.

It is still the Value Bets from the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker leading the way for profit this year so far, and the ROC figure for these has now reached 20%.  I can’t help feeling that a “correction” of sorts is due, as the 33% ROI is about 25-28% higher than I would expect it to be long term.

And finally for notable contributions, it was fantastic to see Sys Analyst enjoy a really good day on Saturday with a couple of very nice winners.  Over the past week or so it’s gone from enduring a period of relative struggle to a service now boasting an ROI of just shy of 50% for the year to date.  How quickly fortunes can change!

Betting 2024

Account Angel: Staked 470pts, +82.1pts. ROI 17.46%

AI Football: Staked 792pts, -4.84pts, ROI: -0.61%, ROC: -0.48%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,380pts, +122.84pts, ROI 8.9%, ROC 8.18%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 707.5pts, -132.98pts, ROI: -15.81%, ROC: -7.45%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 1,365pts, -425.1pts, ROI: -31.14%, ROC: -28.34%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 908pts, +300.88pts, ROI: 33.13%, ROC: 20.05%

DD/HH: Staked 124.5pts, -3.5pts, ROI: -2.81%, ROC: -0.35%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 302.5pts, -69.74pts, ROI -23.05%, ROC -5.81%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 289pts, +143.53pts, ROI: 49.66%, ROC: 9.56%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 0.51%