80/20 Racing – Two Systems Consistently Beating BSP!

Adaptability. What worked yesterday might not work today. What works today might not work tomorrow.

With bookmaker restrictions tightening, early liquidity drying up and horse racing markets becoming more efficient than ever, here at the SBC we are adapting to bring fresh ideas and services to showcase to our members.

80/20 Racing is a perfect example. Using in-house ratings, market analysis and systems that are fine-tuned for specific markets, they have built up an enviable record that has proven profitability with bookmakers, on exchanges and even at the Betfair Starting Price (or BSP)!

This means that even if you are restricted with every bookmaker, this system is accessible for you, providing an excellent opportunity for every bettor.

Get All Of 80/20 Racing Tips Free With SBC Membership

All of 80/20 Racing’s tips are available to all Smart Betting Club members free of charge with each tip supplied via direct email.

If you are not an SBC member and wish to join to access 80/20 Racing’s tips and those from the other free tipsters we provide, subscribe to SBC now and then return to this page to find the link to join his mailing list.

If you hold an SBC membership, login with your username/password and return to this page to discover how to sign-up to get all of his tips for free via email

Introducing 80/20 Racing: In Their Words

To introduce 80/20 Racing, we asked the brains behind the operation, ‘Fred Pareto’, to explain how their systems work:

‘We primarily utilise extensive statistical analysis and our own in-house ratings to detect potential system selections (this is an exhaustive process that takes many factors into account). For our tips, we then go a step further by subsequently reviewing our system shortlists alongside other third-party ratings (as part of the overall selection process) for added quality control as double-confirmation triggers can help add an extra layer of confidence.

For example, are the initial shortlist selections also top-rated or ranked with any other leading (and reliable and respected) rating services? Having meticulously boiled everything down in an exhaustive effort to separate the wheat from the chaff, the service typically looks to pinpoint a combination of horses that are either underrated by the market (think value, i.e., horses that could outrun their market odds) or horses that look to have a very good chance of winning (so we’re more than happy to put forward some favourites, providing we think they rightly deserve to be market favourites).

In essence, the service strives to find a good overall mix and balance of both perceived value horses as well as some more obvious selections from the sharp end of the market. This approach helps give a healthy overall long-term strike rate, as experience has taught us that a lot of punters need regular winners (as far as is possible when combating the unshakeable forces of variance) in order to sustain morale.’

The Two 80/20 Racing Systems

80/20 Racing started proofing their systems with the SBC in July 2022. 12 different strategies were tracked and despite all of them being profitable, we collaborated with 80/20 to tailor an offering for our members.

What we decided on together was two different systems – ‘Prime 11’ and ‘Flat Eric’.

Prime 11 is a high volume service that provides selections for National Hunt, Flat and All Weather meetings. Most months have seen between 110 and 130 selections (averaging out at around 4 a day) and variance is relatively low. Historical results from Prime 11 are discussed below but if you would like to view a bet-by bet record, you can do so here.

Flat Eric, as it’s name suggests, is a flat only service, with bets coming solely from turf meetings. Volume is very much dependent on the amount of racing and a standard month in the flat season will typically see around 40 selections, averaging out at 1 or 2 a day. Variance is higher with this service as most selections are provided at longer odds. You can observe this for yourself in the system’s bet-by-bet record, or continue reading to see our analysis below.

Average odds and variance are discussed (with data breakdowns) in more detail below, but some anecdotal comments from Fred Pareto help to give a general idea of the differences between the two systems:

‘The Flat Eric system tends to focus more on value bets (although it does match some short-priced horses too), hence its overall historical strike rate of approximately 20%. Whereas the Prime 11 system typically gravitates more towards more fancied horses (although it does match some bigger priced horses as well), hence its overall historical strike rate of approximately 40%. The overall average winning prices (at Betfair SP) for Flat Eric are 7.85 (decimal odds). For Prime 11, it’s 2.8 (again, to Betfair SP).’

The Results: Proofing with the SBC

As mentioned previously, all twelve of 80/20’s systems were profitable during 10 months of proofing. Here, we focus on the results of the two systems that are free with SBC membership, ‘Prime 11’ and ‘Flat Eric’. We would advocate a 100 point bank for each service (or a 200 point bank if following both) so have analysed them separately first, with combined performance tracked subsequently.

Prime 11

Prime 11 saw 1,283 bets produce a profit of 219.81 points and a ROI of 17.13% over the 10 month proofing period from Mid-July 2022 to Mid-May 2023.

As you can see in the table below, all but two months were profitable and bank growth was relatively smooth as profits were consistent. A full, bet-by-bet record can be viewed here.

Flat Eric

Flat Eric’s performance was superior to that of Prime 11, albeit with less bets; 288 selections yielded 141.48 points of profit at a ROI of 49.25%.

What we can see from the data is more variance in performance and considering the smaller sample, we must also be more cautious about whether these returns are sustainable.

Despite that, a yield from this number of bets from around 5 full months of selections suggests that ‘Flat Eric’s’ selection criteria is finding value in the flat racing markets. A full, bet-by-bet record can be viewed here.

Combined Performance

Pairing both profitable systems together saw 1,571 bets yield 361.65 points of profit with a ROI of 23.02%. What we can see here is the solid ‘Prime 11’ system working well in tandem with the more volatile ‘Flat Eric’ system to get the best of both services. Steady continuous profit from the former helps to smooth out the peaks and troughs of the latter and only one month saw losses (December, one of the months where Flat Eric put forward no selections).

Average Odds and Strike Rates

The difference between the two systems can be further illustrated by looking at their average winning odds and strike-rates.

As you can see below, Prime 11 has a strike rate that is more than double that of Flat Eric but the latter’s average winning price is considerably higher:

These figures are in line with historic performance at 80/20 Racing and Fred Pareto had this to say about losing runs and variance:

‘Given that Flat Eric is a more value-oriented system, it’s not uncommon for it to run into some longer sequences of consecutive losers. Its historic strike rate is only around 20%, whereas Prime 11 has a historic strike rate of 40%.

When following systems with lower strike rates, you will inevitably run into some longer losing runs at times (rest assured, variance will make sure of it!). For example, from just its last 260 bets, Flat Eric has had runs of 12, 14, and 17 consecutive losers before finding its next winner. When operating at a strike rate of 20%, it’s fairly commonplace to hit a sequence of 10 or more consecutive bets without a winner. It is estimated that when following a system with a 20% strike rate, for every 1000 bets placed, a losing run of 30 consecutive bets without a winner could be reached at some stage. To put this into perspective, when averaging around 2 to 3 bets a day, it’s quite possible that during a downturn in form, the Flat Eric system might not find a single winner during a whole week of racing.

Please note that even systems with higher strike rates can run into losing runs. For example, it is estimated that when following a system with a 40% strike rate (such as Prime 11), for every 1000 bets placed, a losing run of 14 consecutive bets without a winner could be reached at some stage. Try tossing a coin enough times, and you will be surprised how many consecutive times you can sometimes land a coin on its same side. For example, it is estimated that when following a system with a 50% strike rate (i.e., the same probability chance as tossing a coin), for every 1000 bets placed, a losing run of 10 consecutive bets without a winner could be reached at some stage.’

Following 80/20 Racing’s Tips: Practicalities & Getting On

If you are not an SBC member and wish to join to access 80/20 Racing’s tips and those from the other free tipsters we provide, subscribe to SBC now and then return to this page to find the link to join his mailing list.

If you hold an SBC membership, login with your username/password and return to this page to discover how to sign-up to get all of his tips for free via email

Once you are signed up, you will get both ‘Prime 11’ and ‘Flat Eric’ system selections sent through each day, meaning that you can follow one (or both) of them after absorbing the analysis above.

It is worth noting that all of our analysis is based on the Betfair Starting Price. Over time, further analysis will focus on prices with bookmakers and in the pre-race exchange markets to discern whether any further advantages can be found by taking earlier prices. Accounts with BOG (or bot software) may help with this, meaning that the returns above may well be beatable with the right ‘bet placement’ timing.

Service Nuts And Bolts

About: 80/20 Racing is a system-driven tipping service that finds value selections across the UK & Irish horse racing markets.

Bet Timing: Tips are sent at between approximately 10.00am to 11:00am each day.

Bet Type: All bets are advised as 1 point win singles.

Bookmakers: Bets can be placed with bookmakers, at exchanges or at BSP. All results will be logged at BSP.

Number of Bets: The number of bets varies with each service; ‘Prime 11’ averages approximately 4/5 bets a day and ‘Flat Eric’ averages approximately 1 or 2 bets a day.

Staking: 1 point win stakes on each selection.

Betting Banks: We advocate a 100 point betting bank for each of these systems and would advocate a 200 point bank if following both.

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